The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has reported a slowdown in consumer price inflation in Germany, with the rate dropping to 3.8 percent in October. While this marks the lowest level in over two years, it’s crucial to note that when viewed against medium and long-term figures, the German inflation rate is still considered high. Destatis President, Ruth Brand, emphasized that consumers continue to grapple with increased costs in essential areas, particularly food and energy.
Food prices, despite weakening slightly to 6.1 percent, remained the primary driver of inflation in Europe’s largest economy. Notably, sugar, confectionery, and bread and cereal products witnessed substantial price increases of over 10 percent, contributing to this sustained inflationary pressure.
In a somewhat contrasting trend, energy prices registered their first decline in almost three years during October, dropping by 3.2 percent. This decline was primarily attributed to significant decreases in natural gas and heating oil prices. However, electricity prices remained 4.7 percent higher compared to the previous year.
Looking ahead to 2024, there are expectations of a surge in electricity prices due to subsidies aimed at expanding the German energy grid. Comparison company Verivox forecasts an 11 percent year-on-year increase in grid fees for electricity, reaching a new record high at the start of the year.
Despite these economic dynamics, the recovery in consumer sentiment in Germany is viewed as being “a long way off,” according to the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM). Weak purchasing power, driven in part by persistently high prices, has led NIM expert Rolf Buerkl to conclude that private consumption may not provide the necessary support to the economy in the current year.
In contrast to the German situation, the eurozone is witnessing consumer prices normalizing at a faster rate. According to provisional figures from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, inflation in the eurozone decelerated to 2.9 percent in October. However, it’s important to note that these calculations were influenced by the assumption of a more significant drop in German inflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has been actively seeking to curb inflation and align it with its 2 percent target. As part of this effort, the ECB raised its key interest rate to 4.5 percent before deciding to pause. While there’s no definitive plan for further rate hikes, insiders suggest they are not out of the question. Austria’s central bank governor and ECB Governing Council member, Robert Holzmann, cautioned, “We must remain vigilant,” indicating the ECB’s readiness to act as needed to control inflationary pressures.